As our Huskies (6-4-0) enter into Thanksgiving weekend, they are looking to bounce back after being swept at home in a hard fought series against Minnesota State (10-4-0). They travel to America’s dumpster Ohio to play the Bowling Green State Falcons (5-4-1).
Analysis
The Falcons are more similar to our Huskies than fans might realize. Despite their 5-4-1 record, they have more or less beaten the teams they should have. Their losses come at the hand of Western Michigan (8-1-1), Ohio State (9-2-1), and St. Thomas (3-6-4). The biggest knock so far against the Falcons is their series against UST because the Tommies have been drastically underperforming so far this season, so it should have been a chance at a full 6 points in the CCHA standings. Otherwise though, for the most part this season BGSU has played very close games.
When looking at their top players we see:
Like our Huskies, the Falcons have a scoring problem. Both teams have been averaging 2.40 goals a game over a 10 game spread so far. BGSU has seen more depth scoring with a more even distribution of points team-wide compared to Tech. That nuance aside, this Falcon team is more or less a copy of what our Huskies have been so far this season, with the exception being on defense. Bowling Green’s defense has been inferior to our Huskies in that they are allowing a full 0.70 more goals a game, and with that, we see goaltender Cole Moore’s stats suffer compared to Mullahy or Vayrynen. They do make up for this deficit in special teams, beating out our Huskies in both penalty metrics, though not by too much.
Luckily, we do have InStat data that once again that THG’s Augie has prepared for us!
The key to beating the Falcons is going to rely on the shots our Huskies are able to make. BGSU will give teams outside of the zone, but that isn’t going to yield success. Tech will need to push for the slot in order to have real chances.
Our Huskies will have to take away key points from last weekend in order to improve. First and foremost in my eyes is playing a full 60 minute game. Yes, giving up late goals in the 3rd period can take the wind out of a team’s sail, but what we saw last weekend was a total shutdown of almost all effort by our Huskies. The Mavericks scored the eventual game winners in both games around the 13 min mark in 3rd period. Instead of seeing an effort to get the lead back or at least tie the game with roughly 7 minutes remaining, we saw Tech roll over and seemingly give up. This led to broken plays and gave Mankato the chance to follow up with insurance goals in an unnervingly fast time frame.
I don’t blame a single player in last weekend’s case, but more so the team as a whole for falling into that rut. Both the coaching staff and player leadership needs to be able to shake off that impending feeling of dread from falling behind and get the team back up on their feet. Tech should have played to the last buzzer in the 3rd period and forced Mankato to truly earn all 6 conference points, but instead they seemingly spent the last minutes coasting with their tail between their legs. Whether it be through physical play or through generating last minute scoring chances, fans shouldn’t see the team fall behind with a third of the final period left and already know that it’s over.
Keys to the Game
- Our only shot is for you to get angry. The team needs to be more physical. We saw flashes of it last weekend with Morrell delivering a huge check in the 2nd period. Other players like Chase, Pedersen, Works, Hurtig and Fankl need to show they are more physical than what we saw against Mankato. I’m not advocating for them to take a player’s head off, but they need to make opponents earn every inch of ice.
- Stay calm. The theme of this weekend feels like dread from players. Players like Gordon and Baker are seen as underperforing this season so far. The talent is there and I think it’s only a matter of time before we see them start finding a rhythm.
- Next man up. There is no putting it lightly, injuries are starting to pile up. Vayrynen is hurt for who knows how long, and we saw Williams end up on crutches midway through Saturday’s game. This leaves Tech in a tough spot as Mullahy is the only known entity in net. Additionally, there is a hole in the defense depending on how serious the Williams injury is. With Miller and Russell also out due to injuries it will be up to the coaching staff to see if the inexperienced Bezick or a forward playing back is the way to go.
My Prediction
I think Tech are the favorites going into the weekend, but with Mankato proving to be superior, I see the Falcons on a much more even footing now. A week ago, I’d say Tech is far and away the favorite, but now with injuries and how they looked last week, this series is much closer than I want it to be. I think if Tech plays up to how I think they should it will be a sweep, but they need to prove that they can. MTU wins 3-2, MTU wins 2-1.
The guys on our Chasing MacNaughton Podcast also made predictions for this coming series against the Falcons.
Cover photo courtesy Michigan Tech Athletics.
InStat plots created by Zach Aufdemberge.
How to Watch
Both games are available through Mix 93.5 for audio featuring Dirk Hembroff (free), via Midco Sports Plus* (paywall) for video. Game 1 will be Friday at 7:07 ET. Game 2 will be Saturday at 7:07 ET.
*Midco Sports Plus is also the source of all games played in CCHA buildings this season so don’t be afraid to sign up for a month or the year. Midco Sports Plus now has apps for iOS, Android, Apple TV, Amazon Fire TV, and Roku.
Jonathan graduated from Michigan Tech in the spring of 2018 with a degree in Physics and Social Science in addition to a minor in Social and Behavioral Studies. He spent his college career watching hockey with the Misfits where he became the treasurer in his last year. When not traveling to away games he resides in Hancock working for a local engineering company and keeping up with all things Tech Hockey.
