After taking 4 of 6 CCHA points last weekend, our Huskies (7-4-1) are back home hosting the soon-to-be-conference-leaving St. Thomas Tommies (3-8-4).The Tommies are reeling after being swept by the LSSU Lakers (7-6-1), validating a certain Editor-in-Chief’s prediction at the beginning of the season.
Analysis
The Tommies are in a rough spot. They are set to leave the CCHA after this season while still being barred from National Tournament eligibility until next season. They are an older team and while that may be a good thing in a lot of cases, so far this season it hasn’t been for the Tommies. Their top skaters are as follows:
All of their top skaters are upperclassmen, and with the exception of Malmquist, are performing averagely for a CCHA team. UST’s players have a greater number of points, but it’s more concentrated at the top than among the team as a whole. Tech is experiencing the opposite, in that they have less overall points (though they have also played 3 less games), but the team has a better distribution. Other than UST’s top line and a half, the rest of the team is seemingly way below average this season, including Trotter and Sibell, who have been serviceable but not great.
Our Instat insight backs this up with a much worse team on paper in LSSU, but they are able to pull out a sweep on the road.
The Tommies were behind almost all weekend in terms of expected goals and LSSU didn’t take the foot off the gas. Though it should be noted, what isn’t shown in these plots was just how sloppy play was on some of the goals between both teams. I was able to get some clips from Instat and convert them into gifs to show exactly what I mean as seen below:
As you can see, a good portion of goals came at the expense of both teams being out of position. Something that shouldn’t be as big of an issue as with our Huskies.
Speaking of which, our Huskies managed to make a pretty good comeback after two heartbreaking losses against the Mavericks two weeks ago. The team looked to be playing with a chip on their shoulders after a rough weekend and some calling out by head Coach Joe Shawhan. Friday’s game they were in control of the entire timem while in Saturday’s game things got difficult. The Falcons reactivated Christian Stoever who has been dealing with injury and he played a rock solid 45 minutes until Tech was able to finally break through.
However, after the Huskies’ 2nd goal, Stoever had to be relieved due to injury. Sadly for our Huskies, Moore was able to come in and shut the door, leading to a tie and eventual shootout loss. Though Tech would tie, we did see some good news in Isaac Gordon finally getting the preverbal monkey off of his back, netting his first goal of the season.
Keys to the Game
- Game management. This one is directed solely at the coaching staff. Chase is playing too many minutes. Period. Among all skaters in the NCAA he is 3rd averaging 27 minutes and 37 seconds. This is just too high. I understand the depth at D isn’t great right now, but a player like Bezick has shown he can handle it. He should be given more than just 1 minute and 24 seconds of ice time, not only to give him a chance to prove himself in a game environment, but to also take the load off of other D men.
- Special teams. This is still a sore spot among our Huskies. They need to stay out of the box especially this weekend as the Tommies are firing off on all cylinders with a PP% of 25%. Tech needs to play cleanly or else it’s not going to be pretty.
- Don’t get “Goalied”. THG discord member Scotchtape22 was able to do the math and found that over the last 4 seasons Tech’s netminder was able to be the CCHA Goalie of the week. Hopefully they can continue this trend this weekend.
My Prediction
I think Tech has the better depth and better skill throughout the team. Though they are still dealing with injuries I would pick them as the favorites on the weekend. UST will have to out work them to take any points the weekend while our Huskies need to keep the Tommies’ top line in check. MTU wins 3-2, MTU wins 3-2.
The guys on our Chasing MacNaughton Podcast also made predictions for this coming series against the Falcons.
Cover photo courtesy Michigan Tech Athletics.
InStat plots created by Zach Aufdemberge.
How to Watch
Both games are available through Mix 93.5 for audio featuring Dirk Hembroff (free), via Midco Sports Plus* (paywall) for video. Game 1 will be Friday at 7:07 ET. Game 2 will be Saturday at 6:07 ET.
*Midco Sports Plus is also the source of all games played in CCHA buildings this season so don’t be afraid to sign up for a month or the year. Midco Sports Plus now has apps for iOS, Android, Apple TV, Amazon Fire TV, and Roku
Jonathan graduated from Michigan Tech in the spring of 2018 with a degree in Physics and Social Science in addition to a minor in Social and Behavioral Studies. He spent his college career watching hockey with the Misfits where he became the treasurer in his last year. When not traveling to away games he resides in Hancock working for a local engineering company and keeping up with all things Tech Hockey.
