As we prepare to enter into the new year, our Michigan Tech Huskies send off fans by hosting the 58th annual Great Lakes Invitational Tournament! Like in previous years, I’ll be breaking down this year’s tournament with the first day’s games with the possible match ups on day two. Fair warning however, this is gonna be a shorter preview than in past years.
Day One
Michigan Tech vs Western Michigan
Analysis
First up is our Huskies (9-5-2) vs the Western Michigan Broncos (10-3-1). The Broncos this season have been a force to be reckoned with as they have been able to outplay or keep games close all season. There have been a few “gimme” games against Ferris and a weak Minnesota Duluth team this year. On the other hand, they have been able to sweep or split with four teams in the top 20 pairwise. They’ve only lost to the likes of #1 Boston College, #7 Denver, and #9 Michigan. This does not bode well for our Huskies, though it’s hard to see how exactly the Broncos are managing to accomplish this feat.
Looking first at their scoring we see it’s nothing too spectacular with Washe being the exception. Grant Slukunsky is progressing over his freshman campaign at Northern Michigan, but other than those two, the Broncos aren’t scoring more than our Huskies. The real reason they are winning games starts to show itself when looking at their netminders. Rowe and Slukynsky have been lights out all season and Western’s defensive systems are enabling this success.
The Broncos are currently 3rd in the country in goals against a game at 1.8 and have a rock solid penalty kill at 90%. The closest comparison our Huskies have so far this season has been their series against Minnesota State.
Like many for the holiday season, THG’s Augie has been busy with their family and hasn’t had a chance to make our Instat plots. I did look over WMU’s last series against Denver however and can give a bit of comment on it. First and foremost, their offensive systems don’t look too special on initial inspection. Most of their goals were scored between the hashmarks and on broken plays in their offensive zone. Meanwhile, their defense looks very similar to our Huskies so it will be interesting to see who is the unstoppable force or the immovable object this weekend.
Looking at our Huskies we saw a tale of Dr. Jeckyll and Mr. Hyde type of weekend against Bemidji. Game one looked like a typical Tech game and game two saw both teams fly off the rail. However, not all was sunshine and rainbows as Tech lost forward Owen Baker for a majority of the game and his status is currently unknown.
This in turn is where the main problem lies with our Huskies going into the halfway point of the season. The injuries are piling up and replacements are running thin, as shown with Tech’s midseason addition of Ryan Manzella in net from the USHL to relieve the loss of Max Vayrynen, whose season is likely over due to injury. To add salt to the wound, the D corps is still very fragile with only Oliver Bezick in reserve as Trevor Russell’s return timetable is unknown and Tyler Miller’s season ending injury from his first ever college game (the exhibition against Northern).
The forward corps is currently in better shape, but there are still unknowns with Baker, and Tom Leppa as it was revealed on some broadcasts that he is in need of surgery of some sort. The extent isn’t really known, it could be something as simple as a scope or something more complicated. Additionally, Leppa was recently just cut from the IIHF World Junior Finnish team so his timetable to return with Tech is unknown, but given the tournament is in Ottawa this year there is a good chance he is already back with the team.
Though the recent news for Tech has been more in the camp of uncertainty, there are some good signs things are trending up as seen with that last game against BSU. Gordon is now second on the team in points, Sardarian has flourished in Coach Shawhan’s systems wiping away any concerns of his 200 foot game, and freshmen Logan Morrell and Rylan Brown have stepped up in their current roles. The future of this season and of the program look very bright given the road bumps that have occurred this season.
Keys to the Game
- Defense Wins games. This is going to be key for both teams going into the tournament format. Honestly, Western, Tech, and State all have top defenses in the NCAA. The only exception is Northern for obvious reasons. I think this is going to be a low scoring game and it’s only going to take a few goals each game to win.
- 5 on 5. Special teams are only going to hurt Tech. Western has a top five PK while their 16% PP% isn’t anything to scoff at given Tech’s 78% PK%. If Tech is going to have a fighting chance they need to score in 5 on 5 play.
- Keep them to the perimeter. Most of Western’s scoring success comes from crashing the middle of the ice. If Tech can keep their top skaters to the outside of the zone they should be able to greatly reduce the scoring chances.
My Prediction
Before looking into the Broncos this season I thought they would just stomp our Huskies. However, given Tech’s play style I do think they have a chance as Western is winning games from their defense first play style. Tech has the better offensive players given just raw stats, but it’ll be if the Huskies can do any against Rowe in net. WMU wins 3-2.
The guys on our Chasing MacNaughton Podcast also made predictions for this GLI.
Michigan State vs Northern Michigan
I mean, what do I even need to say here. Michigan State (13-2-1) has more losses than Northern Michigan (1-16-1) has wins… Hell, they are allowing more goals per game than Northern is scoring… If the Spartens lose, it is solely because of NMU’s Ouellette standing on his head.
I’ll just leave you with CHN’s “Tale of the Tape” to drive home the point.
MSU wins 5-0.
Day Two
I will be doing a lightning round and giving some quick and dirty predictions.
Possible match ups.
Michigan Tech vs Michigan State
If Tech is able to beat Western then they have a real shot at beating MSU, but they will need to prove it. MSU wins 3-2.
Michigan Tech vs Northern Michigan
This is the most likely 3rd place game, Tech is the favorite and I would pick them in a heartbeat (along with any team playing Northern) MTU wins 3-1.
Western vs Michigan State
This is the likely championship game and I would give the edge to MSU. But Western is very capable of winning. MSU wins 2-1.
Western vs Northern Michigan
This either the 3rd place game if Tech managed to win, or hell did truly freeze over and NMU is trying to win the GLI. Either way Western is winning. WMU wins 4-0.
Cover photo courtesy Michigan Tech Athletics.
Jonathan graduated from Michigan Tech in the spring of 2018 with a degree in Physics and Social Science in addition to a minor in Social and Behavioral Studies. He spent his college career watching hockey with the Misfits where he became the treasurer in his last year. When not traveling to away games he resides in Hancock working for a local engineering company and keeping up with all things Tech Hockey.
